Analyzing Korea’s 2035 NDC Emissions Reduction Pathway through an Integrated Assessment Model
About
This joint study by Solutions for Our Climate and the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland utilizes the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate a high-ambition yet pragmatic greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pathway that Korea can realistically achieve by 2035. The analysis aligns with internationally recommended emissions targets while deliberately minimizing dependence on highly uncertain future technologies such as hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). It presents a conservative, evidence-based scenario for Korea’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), grounded in currently available technologies.
Executive summary
Although Korea’s GHG emissions have gradually declined since peaking in 2018, current efforts remain insufficient to achieve its 2030 NDC target. Moreover, even full implementation of the current 2030 goal—a 40% reduction—would fall significantly short of what is required to meet the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris Agreement and the nation’s 2050 net-zero commitment.
Through GCAM-based modeling, this study finds that Korea could achieve a 61% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035, relative to 2018 levels. This outcome is premised on several key measures: the complete phase-out of coal-fired power generation, the cancellation of planned LNG plant construction, the rapid deployment of renewable energy and energy storage systems (ESS), the gradual decommissioning of blast furnaces in the steel sector, and comprehensive electrification of the transportation sector.
Crucially, this scenario avoids reliance on speculative or immature technologies. Instead, it demonstrates that a clear and cost-effective transition centered on proven technologies—solar and wind power—can exceed the 2030 NDC and place Korea on a viable trajectory toward net-zero.
Key findings
Under the high-ambition GCAM scenario, Korea can reduce its GHG emissions by 61% by 2035, relative to 2018 levels.
The pathway is contingent upon the following conditions:
1) Complete coal phase-out by 2035
2) Cancellation of new LNG power plant projects
3) Large-scale expansion of renewable energy and ESS
4) Gradual transition from blast furnace-based steelmaking
5) Electrification of the transportation sectorThe modeled trajectory deliberately avoids reliance on high-uncertainty technologies such as CCS, hydrogen, and ammonia. Instead, it leverages cost-effective, technologically mature solutions centered on solar and wind.
Compared to Korea’s 11th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand—which continues to emphasize carbon-intensive pathways and unproven technologies—this scenario strengthens policy credibility by demonstrating realistic implementation feasibility.
Ultimately, achieving deep decarbonization and carbon neutrality is not a question of technological possibility but one of political will. Scientifically grounded, actionable mitigation pathways are already available.